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November 04, 2004
John Kerry, the New Coke
The close 2004 presidential election is a superlative parallel to what many organizations face every day: Intense competition with a tough competitor, polarized customer loyalties and winning defined by 1-2 percentage points.
Certainly this election will be discussed and analyzed for years, but I see two clear reasons why George W. Bush beat John Kerry:
1. Bush's campaign consistently preached to the choir.
2. John Kerry was New Coke.
The Bush choir delivered the vote. Kerry's campaign focused on converting people not already in its choir: swing voters.
The Bush campaign consistently "super-charged" its base of true-believer volunteers in the field, whipping them up into a frenzy at every possible opportunity. Kerry's campaign army in key states resembled a professional workforce. In other words, the Republicans were more enthusiastically grassroots-oriented than the Democrats.
A Wall Street Journal article (paid subscription required) amplified the difference:
[The Bush campaign won] by doggedly pursuing a plan that some fellow Republicans doubted, one that centered on super-charging the party's conservative base rather than banking on swing voters; picking off targeted slivers of traditional Democratic constituencies; and relying on volunteers to match or exceed the professional cadres mobilizing their Democratic opponents.
The lesson of New Coke is a lesson of this campaign, too. If you're old enough like me, you'll remember in the early 1980s when the sweeter-tasting Pepsi was closing in on Coke's leadership position in key markets, even though Coke was outspending Pepsi's marketing by millions.
Coke's response? Be more like Pepsi.
Coke thought "the market" was moving toward sweeter beverages, so it tried to be like Pepsi by abandoning the original formula and creating "New Coke." But Coke's evangelists revolted and sales plummeted. How many times did we hear that Kerry and Bush shared many similarities? Often enough to take the fizz out of any hope for enthusiastic differentiation for Kerry's base.
That's why the daily work of business is like a never-ending, very close presidential campaign. Here are some comparative metaphors:
• Preach to the choir. For the 2004 election, the base turnout for each candidate may seem virtually identical: Kerry had 89% support among Democrats; Bush had 93% from Republicans. The four percent difference in the base turnout was the key -- by getting the Republican choir stirred up enough, it delivered more choir members and leapfrogged Kerry in Ohio. It saved precious resources by not courting undecideds.
• True-believer volunteers will work several percentage points harder than paid professionals. Howard Dean's true believers of enthusisatic and counter-culture young people were often ridiculed as unrepresentative of mainstream society, but they were mightily effective. The same could be said on both counts of George Bush's base of evangelical Christians. The lesson here: your most enthusiastic believers are usually out there, but they are vastly more effective in winning customers than cash-or-points referral programs or paid spokespeople.
• Your choir will help you succeed, but you must be willing to cede control. Give your true-believer customers clearly identifiable goals to meet and stop worrying about the effect volunteers will have on your "brand." Here's an example:
Bush volunteer Frank York gathered 880 voter sign-ups, a record for Ohio. Then he went door-to-door and handed out ballot applications. He took completed forms to party headquarters in his county. There, they were photocopied for the party's contact list.
Then he did "lit drops." He estimates "conservatively" that he left pro-Bush literature at 3,000 homes in the final days.
"I was pretty much on my own those last two weeks, every day, seven days a week," he told the Journal. He no longer needed the exercise bike at home. "There'd be lots of nights I'd have aches and pains" from the walking. "But you learn to live with it."
Howard Dean's campaign laid the foundation for Democrats on creating a grassroots-based strategy to super-charge the base. While Kerry's campaign learned a few lessons from Dean's, it mostly relied on a traditional campaign model.
As for New Coke, the beverage, it essentially died when Coke restored the original formula. Coke has been the leader ever since.
Other blogs that reference John Kerry, the New Coke:
» Post-election analysis from I am Jack's Blog
Here's a very interesting piece on why Bush won and Kerry lost: Certainly this election will be discussed and analyzed for years, but I see two clear reasons why George W. Bush beat John Kerry: 1. Bush's campaign consistently preached to the choir. 2. ... [Read More]
» John Kerry, the New Coke from Broadband and Me
John Kerry, the New Coke At Church of the Customer they compare Kerry's defeat to the advent of new Coke in the 80s. The close 2004 presidential election is a superlative parallel to what many organizations face every day: Intense... [Read More]
» Quick Links ... from GregsOpinion.com
Not too often that I find something worth highlighting from the KOS Diaries, but here we go ... If the Democratic Party were a business... It's pretty light on specifics, but still worth following the links on. If you're versed... [Read More]
» Advanced MP3 Catalog Download from MP3 Catalog
Download advanced mp3 catalog pro Advanced MP3 Catalog is designed for anyone ... Generate and print reports and CD covers, export your catalog, search for ... [Read More]
Bad analogy. Coca Cola, Inc. switched to "New" Coke so no one would notice that when they brought back "Classic" Coke that it contained high fructose corn syrup instead of sugar.
An addendum: Paul Krugman of the New York Times: "Rather than catering to voters who will never support them, the Democrats - who are doing pretty well at getting the votes of moderates and independents - need to become equally effective at mobilizing their own base."
I agree there is much business knowledge to be gleaned from this campaign. Bush's success reminds me of the lessons I learned from Jim Collins in "Good to Great." Bush seemed to focus. He had disciplined people, who engaged in disciplined thought and took disciplined action. Kerry attempted to be all things to all people, to his detriment and demise. Great post!
Ben you are a generous soul. I thought Al Gore's campaign reached the depth of pathetic when he couldn't even carry his own state. But I was wrong. In terms of missed opportunities, a lack of passion, and the almost obsessive tendency of the Kerry campaign to avoid speaking the obvious makes Kerry's campaign the winner here.
One great opportunity after another was missed, avoided or overlooked. Bush's classic line accusing Kerry of being a big spending liberal could have easily and truthfully been answered: "I'm a big spender liberal???That from a guy who took a $200 Billion surplus and turned it into a $500 billion deficit in 3 short years and all the while still claiming to be a conservative..."
I hope the Dems don't over analyze. Sometimes, even in politics, just saying the simple truth is the best policy.
While I do support the president, I was a little annoyed that the Bush was always preaching to a choir. I would have liked to hear answers to some of the hard questions. On the other hand, Kerry constantly came across as politics as usual to me...saying what he thought people wanted to hear. For me, it was easy to choose the leader who believes in something and stands for it over the politician whose deeper beliefs are a mystery. I still want to know Kerry's plan and hope that it can be considered as part of the way to the future. It really is too bad that we can't get better people to apply for the job.
Running for president is like surviving a two-year gauntlet of hazing rituals.
I understand you're using the race as a metaphor for your marketing beliefs, but I think your underlying analysis is off.
Of course, there are plenty of political pundits who think the same thing you do. The conventional wisdom in DC is so often wrong.
